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Game of unglorious certainities :-) October 6, 2007

Posted by Sharath Rao in sport.
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Going by the record of the past one-day matches, India have won 2 out of the last 21 matches, making it a nearly 1 in 11. By purely inferring from past data, the scoreline for this series should be 6-0 for Australia.

Now, if we include matches where India batted second, we will have to go back to at least April 1998 when India won last. So, assuming the team played each other 3 times every year since then, we have played them about 30 times and probably 15 of them batting second. So our success rate chasing is 1 in 15.

Other than Ponting, there is nobody in the Australian team who has lost to India while defending. Baring Tendulkar, Ganguly and Dravid, none have an idea what it is like to chase down an Australian total. Just in case you did not get it, my rant of course is not about India’s recent losses. Its about all that has happened in the last 10 years. Just imagine in the light of all this, what is the frame of mind of the two teams when they walk out to play each other in a ond-dayer yet again.

So when millions of them are glued to the TV, including many in other time zones losing out on work/sleep, is it because they have a poor sense of history or poor knowledge of probability 😀

I have posted on this before, and looking it up I realize I have written much the same before 😦

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1. Subtle and not so subtle Po(i)ntings « Epistles - October 20, 2007

[…] Subtle and not so subtle Po(i)ntings October 20, 2007 Posted by Sharath Rao in sport. trackback Maybe should take it back now. […]


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